io.github.TeleKashOracle/mcp-server
Prediction market probability oracle. 500+ markets from Kalshi, Polymarket & Metaculus.
Open source Open in the app JSON README (API)
About
Prediction market probability oracle. 500+ markets from Kalshi, Polymarket & Metaculus.
Details
- Kind
- MCP servers
- Topic
- No topic detected
- Publisher
- telekashoracle
- Origin
- official
- Category
- ferramentas
- Transport
- local
- Version
- 1.0.0
- Stars
- 1
- Last push
- 2026-03-19T16:13:58Z
- Repository state
- ativo
- Language
- JavaScript
- License
- MIT
- Added
- 2026-08-29 03:02:16
- Updated
- 2026-08-29 03:02:16
- Origin id
io.github.TeleKashOracle/mcp-server
README
# TeleKash MCP Server
**Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.**
[](https://www.npmjs.com/package/telekash-mcp-server)
[](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT)
[](https://modelcontextprotocol.io)
[](https://nodejs.org)
## What is this?
TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.
**What makes it different:**
- **Multi-source** — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
- **Self-calibrating** — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
- **Universal Payment Layer** — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
- **28 tools** — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission
## Quick Install
```bash
npx telekash-mcp-server
```
### Claude Code
```bash
claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server
```
### Claude Desktop / Cursor
Add to your MCP configuration file:
```json
{
"mcpServers": {
"telekash-oracle": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]
}
}
}
```
## Tools
28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.
### Intelligence
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
| ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------- |
| `get_probability` | Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score | Free |
| `list_markets` | Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting | Free |
| `search_markets` | Full-text search across 4,500+ markets | Free |
| `get_history` | Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d | Free |
| `get_sentiment` | AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter | Free |
| `get_market_stats` | Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources | Free |
| `get_trending` | Markets with the biggest probability swings | Free |
| `compare_sources` | Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison | Calibration |
### Analytics
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
| ------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- |
| `detect_arbitrage` | Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals | Calibration |
| `get_signal` | Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict | Calibration |
| `get_divergences` | Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK) | Calibration |
| `get_edge` | Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification | Calibration |
| `track_prediction` | Record predictions for accuracy tracking | Calibration |
| `get_performance` | Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis | Calibration |
### Trading
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
| ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- |
| `execute_trade` | Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools | Edge |
| `get_order_status` | Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders | Edge |
| `cancel_order` | Cancel pending or submitted broker orders | Edge |
| `get_pool_status` | Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds | Edge |
| `get_agent_balance` | Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count | Edge |
| `get_resolution_status` | Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels | Edge |
| `create_market` | Create custom binary prediction markets | Edge |
| `export_data` | Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage | Edge |
### Admin
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
| ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- |
| `generate_api_key` | Generate a free API key (no signup required) | Free |
| `get_usage` | Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status | Free |
| `register_alert` | Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes | Edge |
| `list_alerts` | List active webhook alerts with delivery stats | Edge |
| `delete_alert` | Delete a webhook alert | Edge |
| `get_health` | System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status | Free |
## Pricing
Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.
| Tier | Cost | Queries/Day | What you get |
| --------------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Free** | $0 | 100 | Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health |
| **Calibration** | $0.01/query | 1,000 | + Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking |
| **Edge** | $0.05/query | Unlimited | + Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation |
### Revenue model
| Stream | Rate | Description |
| -------------------- | -------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- |
| Intelligence queries | $0 - $0.05/query | Real-time probability, sentiment, signals |
| Broker trades | 1% commission | Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket |
| Native pool trades | 5% fee at resolution | Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users |
### Universal Payment Layer
Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.
| Rail | Network | Asset | Fee |
| ------------------- | --------------------- | ----------------- | --------- |
| **x402** (Coinbase) | Base, Polygon, Solana | USDC | Free (0%) |
| **Stripe MPP** | Fiat | USD (cards, bank) | 2.9% |
| **TON** | TON mainnet | TON | Free (0%) |
```typescript
// Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_signal",
arguments: {
query: "Bitcoin 200K",
x402_payment: {
tx_hash: "0xabc...",
network: "base",
rail: "x402",
},
},
});
```
### Get an API key
```bash
# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)
# Call the generate_api_key tool
# Or via Telegram
# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey
```
## Example
Connect to the server and query a market probability:
```typescript
import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";
const transport = new StdioClientTransport({
command: "npx",
args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],
});
const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });
await client.connect(transport);
// Get probability for a market
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_probability",
arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },
});
console.log(result.content);
// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }
```
More examples in the [`examples/`](./examples) directory:
- `quick-start.ts` -- Connect, search, get probabilities
- `arbitrage-scanner.ts` -- Find cross-source mispricings
- `portfolio-scanner.ts` -- Scan markets and build a ranked portfolio
- `market-monitor.ts` -- Watch a market and log probability changes
## Environment Variables
The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:
```
SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co
SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key
TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key # Optional: enables paid tiers
TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x... # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments
TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ... # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments
STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_... # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments
X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator # Default: Coinbase facilitator
```
## Data Sources
| Source | Type | Sync Frequency |
| ---------- | -------------------------- | ---------------- |
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Every 15 minutes |
| Polymarket | Crypto-native exchange | Every hour |
All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.
## Links
- [npm](https://www.npmjs.com/package/telekash-mcp-server)
- [GitHub](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server)
- [Agent Card](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server/blob/main/agent-card.json)
- [A2A Protocol](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server/blob/main/server.json)
- [TeleKash Bot](https://t.me/TeleKashBot)
## License
MIT