aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
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Musings on Markets
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · English
A blog about markets, finance and all things money related.
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- Interest Rates and Stock Prices: An Old Debate Flares up!
Sep 10, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span The war in Iran, oil prices and worries about a recession have all taken turns driving stock prices in 2026 but talk about interest rates and where they are going has been a constant concern all year. In the last few weeks, interest rate worries have come to the sur - The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital's Weakest Link!
Sep 2, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span It is undeniable technology companies have found their most hospitable setting in the United States and while there are many reasons for the US dominance of technology, easier access to capital for young businesses has been a key ingredient. Venture capital in the US, in - AI's Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions!
Aug 20, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"iForeword: I wrote and posted this piece on August 20, 2026, with the promise that I would listen to feedback and try to respond and incorporate ideas and suggestions. To keep this promise, I will edit this piece over time and reflect the changes I make./i/pp style="text-align: justify;"/p - The Situational Awareness Blow-up: The Collateral Damage from Investing Conviction!
Aug 11, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span Earlier this year, I was asked what I thought about Leopold Aschenbrenner and I admitted that I knew little about him other than what I had read about him, more in social media, than in the press - that he was a 25-year-old wunderkind who had started at OpenAI but h - Information Timing and Release: The Gaming of Guidance!
Jul 29, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"spanspan /spanI am a lapsed academic, insofar as I have not submitted a paper for publication in more than two decades, but to acquire academic status, I did have to earn a PhD in the distant past. My a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-an - Country Risk: Drivers, Measures and Investment Implications - The 2026 Edition!
Jul 15, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span /spanI am a creature of habit in my personal and professional life, and in the context of the content that I post online, there is a ritual that I follow with my data updates. I start the year with my a href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar//New_Home_Page/data. - SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!
Jun 18, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span Over the last few weeks, attention has (rightly) been focused on three potentially trillion dollar companies all lined up to go public, and much of the discussion has been about what SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are worth (and will be priced at). In parallel, there - Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
Jun 4, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span Aa href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/04/to-trillion-dollars-and-beyond-spacex.html" few weeks ago, I assessed the value of SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering/a, with the admission that I was making my estimates with drabs of data, some of - An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy
May 6, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span Through time, we have glorified conquerors and empire builders in politics, civic life and business, from Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to the tech titans of today. That is no surprise, since these individuals have oversized personas and often change the cours - To a Trillion(s) Dollars and beyond: A SpaceX IPO Odyssey!
Apr 23, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span In i2001, A Space Odyssey/i, a movie that was well ahead of its time when it was released in 1968, Hal (the computer) famously responded to questions about his reliability with “it (mstakes) can only be attributable to human error”. I was reminded of my fallibility repeat - Oil, War and the Global Economy: The Market's Narrative in March 2026
Apr 1, 2026 · original
div style="text-align: justify;" Markets play an expectations game, and in March 2026, we saw the process play out, with all of its upsides and downsides. The month started with a war in the Middle East, which quickly percolated into soaring oil prices and dropping stock prices, but the overwhelming factor - Finding your investing lodestar: In Search of an Investment Philosophy
Mar 24, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span When uncertainty roils markets, as is the case right now, it is natural for investors to get knocked off balance, a when off-balance, to make investment decisions that they often regret later. It is during those times that it helps to have a core set of beliefs about mark - The Price of Risk: An Equity Risk Premium Monologue!
Mar 15, 2026 · original
div style="text-align: justify;"span I start my valuation classes with a question of whether valuation is an art or a science, and I argue that it is neither; it does not have the precision that characterizes a science and unlike an art, it does come with principles that constrain you on what you can and ca - AI Scenarios: From Doomsday Destruction to Do-Nothing Bots!
Mar 4, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span When Chat GPT made its debut on November 30, 2022, it unleashed the hype of AI, and in the three years since, AI has taken on an outsized role not just in markets, but also in our lives. For much of the time, the AI story has been told by its advocates and its sales - Data Update 8 for 2026: Time for Harvesting - Dividends and Buybacks
Feb 24, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span In the data update posts this year, I have wended my way from the macro (equities collectives, the bond market and other asset classes) to the micro, starting with hurdle rates and returns in posts a href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/02/data-update-5-for-202 - Data Update 7 for 2026: Debt and Taxes
Feb 20, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;"span In my a href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/02/data-update-5-for-2026-risk-and-hurdle.html"fifth data update/a, I examined a data-preview="" href="https://www.google.com/search?ved=1t:260882&q=define+hurdle+rates&bbid=8152901575140311047&bpid=1 - Data Update 6 for 2026: In Search of Profitability!
Feb 16, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span Crass and mercantile though this may sound, the end game for a business is to make money, and a business that fails this simple test cannot survive for long, no matter how noble its social mission, how great its products and how much it is loved by its customers and - Data Update 5 for 2026: Risk and Hurdle Rates
Feb 5, 2026 · original
span /spanIn my first four posts, I looked at markets - equity, debt and collectibles - in the aggregate performed in 2025. In this post, I turn my attention to divergences in risk across companies, looking at alternative measures of risk, some based on prices and others at earnings, and how these dif - Data Update 4 for 2026: The Global Perspective!
Feb 2, 2026 · original
div style="text-align: justify;" If you have a href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com"read my first three data updates/a in 2026, I won’t blame you if you skip this one, because you found them long and boring. I won't take issue with you either if you viewed them as too US-focused, because I - Data Update 3 for 2026: The Trust Deficit - Bonds, Currencies, Gold and Bitcoin!
Jan 28, 2026 · original
p style="text-align: justify;" span In a href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/01/data-update-2-for-2026-equities-get.html"my last post/a, I talked about the disconnect between the bad news stories that we were reading and the solid performance of US /spanequities during 2025. In this o
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